At the end of the month, the 55-percent handicapper would have gone 83-67 for a gain of 9.3 units, while the 60-percent handicapper would have gone 18-12 for a profit of 4.8 units, so the 55-percent handicapper has made nearly twice as much.
If somebody were to ask you if you would rather be a 60-percent handicapper or a 55-percent handicapper, which would you choose? The obvious answer is that it’s better to be a 60-percent handicapper, but that isn’t necessarily true.
For the bettors that do their own handicapping, however, units won is really the only thing you should be concerned with, as that ultimately is going to translate into the bottom line. A winning percentage of 55-percent sure doesn’t sound as sexy as a 60-percent handicapper, but if your volume of plays is high enough, it can certainly be much more profitable.
Making it more difficult for sports bettors is that some sports services will claim to have won 200 units in a particular sport, but don’t mention that they release 10- or 20-unit plays, along with several 100-unit “locks” at the end of the year if things aren’t going so well and they need something to base next year’s advertising on.
The 55-percent handicapper is using what is commonly referred to as the Wal-Mart Approach, which is to have a lot of volume with the expectation of grinding out a small profit. With baseball season coming back in about 4 months, many sports gamblers will be seeing ads from different sports services claiming winning percentages of 65-percent for baseball, and that’s entirely possibly, but what the services aren’t saying is that the majority of their selections were favorites of -200 or more, turning that 65-percent handicapping into a losing proposition.
The only statistic that sports bettors should be concerned with is units won, which is the amount of profit, or loss, they have over time, and not worry nearly as much about winning percentage. In the question above, it would be much better to be a 55-percent handicapper if you were playing 150 games a month, as opposed to a 60-percent handicapper playing one game a day. And as is the case with the Arkansas-based giant, many times this will be more profitable than being extremely selective and doing a small amount of volume, even if the mark-up is higher.
The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.
The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.
The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..
Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.
Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.
So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.
College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. This is where an important word of caution is in order though.
NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.
. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.
So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.
By: Manny G
So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won)
To be sure, I’m eager to sit down with [MLB commissioner Rob] Manfred to address my entire history — the good and the bad — and my long personal journey since baseball. But the newly surfaced documents could spell an end to the 74-year-old legend’s Cooperstown aspirations.
Rose issued a statement to ESPN through his lawyer, Raymond Genco.
- John Dowd, MLB investigator. Postal Inspection Service in October 1989. He refused to give them to us.”
Pete Rose’s long insistence that he never gambled on baseball while playing the game may be unraveling, after ESPN unearthed documents it says shows he bet on the Cincinnati Reds while a player-manager in the last year of his illustrious career.
Major League Baseball has historically reserved its harshest punishment for players who gamble on the sport, claiming such wagers affect baseball’s integrity – even if a player such as Rose bet on his own team to win.
In the five months covered by the notebook, Rose allegedly placed at least one bet on baseball 30 times, as well as placing wagers on other sports, ESPN reported. Rose, who would certainly be in the Hall of Fame if not for his ban, has long lobbied to be allowed back into the sport. The actual notebook has remained under court-ordered seal for 26 years and is currently stored in the National Archives’ New York office.
Dowd said his team had sought the records in order to prove Rose bet on the sport while a player.
Rose, the sport’s all-time leader with 4,256 hits, has been banned from the sport since 1989. That meeting likely will come sometime after the All-Star break. Most of the bets were for about $2,000.
This closes the door,” said John Dowd, the former federal prosecutor
The documents obtained by ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” are copies of pages from a notebook seized from the home of former Rose associate Michael Bertolini during a raid by the U.S. “We tried to get them. Therefore at this point, it’s not appropriate to comment on any specifics.”
“We knew that [Bertolini] recorded the bets, and that he bet himself, but we never had his records,” Dowd told ESPN. For the next 15 years, he insisted he never gambled, then in 2004 admitted he had but only as a manager. “I need to maintain that. This closes the door,” said John Dowd, the former federal prosecutor who led MLB’s 1989 investigation.
“Since we submitted the application earlier this year, we committed to MLB that we would not comment on specific matters relating to reinstatement,” the statement read.
“This does it. The sports network said the papers’ authenticity has been verified by two people who took part in the raid, which was part of an unrelated mail fraud probe