Use The Win, Draw, Loss Method For Soccer Betting

Or, if you’re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies.

Let’s look at a simple example of how you could apply this…

IF HOMEWIN > HOMETHRESHOLD THEN

HOMEP = HOMEP + 3

ELSE

DRAWP = DRAWP + 1

AWAYP = AWAYP + 1

END IF

Now we compare each of the calculated probabilities against our thresholds to arrive at a vote count for each outcome;

Here are the basic rules…

(( HW + AL) * 100) / total number of matches

First of all you would collect the data for a specified period of time and for each of the three possible outcomes, i.e.

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Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. For a specified period of time the number of wins, losses, and draws are counted for each side. A total of seven different statistical methods are used to determine the outcome of each game played in each league, and a comprehensive record of how each method in each game performed is kept. By calculating the number of wins, draws and losses for both the home and away sides and then combining them it is possible to produce a statistical probability of the possible outcome of the game.

Here is a list of all the articles in this series…

This means we now have a total vote count for each of the three possible outcomes.

Next we can deduce our final 1, X, 2, 1X, and X2 predictions based on the voting as follows;

IF DRAW > DRAWTHRESHOLD THEN

DRAWP = DRAWP + 3

ELSE

HOMEP = HOMEP + 1

AWAYP = AWAYP + 1

END IF

Now let’s extend this to provide 1, X, 2, 1X, and X2 predictions…

2. Apart from how each tip performed within its respective league 1X2Monster also provides the league tables of how each league has performed in successfully predicting outcomes of games. The percentage probabilities for home wins, draws, and away wins are then made. The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win predictions, draw predictions, away win predictions, and for overall predictions and are invaluable tools to the soccer punter when deciding where to target their European soccer betting predictions.

HOMEWIN = ((HW + AL)*100)/TOTALGAMES

DRAW = ((HD+AD)*100)/TOTALGAMES

AWAYWIN = ((HL + AW)*100)/TOTALGAMES

Now it’s your turn…

By: Grant Collier

The Win, Draw, Loss method is very simple and takes into account the proportion of past wins, draws, and losses over a specified period of time. So, you could create better threshold values and decide to collect data over any period of time you like. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly soccer betting forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

IF AWAYWIN > AWAYTHRESHOLD THEN

AWAYP = AWAYP + 3

ELSE

HOMEP = HOMEP + 1

DRAWP = DRAWP + 1

END IF

HW = number of home wins for home team

HD = number of draws for home team

HL = number of home losses for home team

AW = number of away wins for away team

AD = number of draws for away team

AL = number of away losses for away team

How To Make A Profit From FREE 1X2 Soccer Picks

Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Rateform Method

Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Footyforecast Method

Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Win Draw Loss Method

Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Simple Sequence Method

Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Score Prediction Method

Improve Your Soccer Betting Using The Superiority Method

This gives you a percentage probability for each of the three possible outcomes.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Win Draw Loss method to your data. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. For example, the home win percentage is calculated as follows:

Then we initialise our voting counts for each method;

TOTALGAMES = HW + HD + HL + AW + AD + AL

Here is how a typical calculation is made…

Improve Your Soccer Betting is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. 1X2Monster and Footyforecast have been providing this kind of facility since 1999. This could be for a whole season or you may wish to have a rolling time period, say the last six months for example.

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